Quickie: MLB Playoffs by Pitching Statistics

February 23rd, 2010 by tomflesher

It’s cold out today. Last night, Buffalo was covered in a thin layer of freezing rain. I’m trying to stay warm by turning up my hot stove the way only an economist can - crunching the numbers on playoffs.

I’m re-using the dataset from my Cy Young Predictor a few entries ago in the interest of parsimony. It contains dummy variables teamdivwin and teamwildcard which take value 1 if the pitcher’s team won the division or the wildcard respectively. I then created a variable playoffs which took the value of the sum of teamdivwin and teamwildcard - just a playoff dummy variable.

Using a Probit model and a standard OLS regression model, I estimated the effects of individual pitching stats on playoffs. Neither model has very strong predictive value (linear has R-squared of about .05), which is unsurprising since it doesn’t take the team’s batting into account at all. None of the coefficient values are shocking - in the American League (designated as lg = 1), teams have a higher probability of making the playoffs because there are fewer teams, and although complete games appear to have a negative effect, the positive shutout effect more than makes up for that in both models. I’m interested in whether complete game wins and complete game losses have differential effects - that will probably be my next snowy-day project.

Results are behind the cut.

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Research

January 17th, 2010 by tomflesher

This semester’s research note involved data collection and analysis regarding housing prices in Amherst, New York. The paper, which I’ve posted in PDF format here, contains a detailed description of my methodology and results. Data and SAS code are available by request.

With the usual caveats about sample size (as discussed in the paper), it seems that officials were systematically under-assessed and so carried a lower-than-expected property tax burden.

Cy Young gives me a headache.

January 15th, 2010 by tomflesher

As usual, I’ve started my yearly struggle against a Cy Young predictor. Bill James and Rob Neyer’s predictor (which I’ve preserved for posterity here) did a pretty poor job this year, having predicted the wrong winner in both leagues and even getting the order very wrong compared to the actual results. Inside, I’d like to share some of my pain, since I can’t seem to do much better.

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Three Catchers, Four Starters, and Other Playoff Thoughts

October 26th, 2009 by tomflesher

Last night, the LA Angels lost Game 6 of the 2009 ALCS to the New York Yankees. Mike Scioscia started left-handed pitcher Joe Saunders; he carries, as is becoming the norm, three catchers including light-hitting third catcher Bobby Wilson. Joe Girardi also carries three catchers, although his array includes defensive specialist Jose Molina, sometime-DH Jorge Posada, and Francisco Cervelli, who hit .298 in 94 at-bats this season. Though Mike Napoli was hot during the postseason, Scioscia’s group of catchers wasn’t as specialized as it was in 2005, when he carried big-hitter Bengie Molina, Jose Molina for his glove, and Josh Paul for emergencies. Here, he appeared to be carrying three catchers solely because none of them are big hitters. In retrospect, although Napoli and Mathis are both a big part of the Angels clubhouse, Scioscia should have made a move during the regular season to replace one of them with a catcher who was more of the Bengie Molina or Jorge Posada mold - someone whose glove or arm is slightly defective, but who can hit the ball when necessary. Instead, Scioscia was forced to burn two pinch hitters and a second catcher in his attempt to win the game last night, whereas Girardi has in previous games been able to use the traditional approach of starting Molina and using Posada to pinch hit, or starting Posada and using Molina as a defensive replacement late in the game. In a perfect world, Scoscia could have traded Kendry Morales away and acquired Victor Martinez to use mainly at first base and as an emergency third catcher, replacing Wilson’s more or less dead weight with a big bat but not forgoing any real utility.

In addition, Scioscia started Joe Saunders. This isn’t a crime in and of itself. However, in the ALCS, he started John Lackey, Saunders, Jered Weaver, and Scott Kazmir. Girardi, meanwhile, is using Joe Torre’s time-honored trick of carrying only three starters (CC Sabathia, Andy Pettitte, and AJ Burnett) and using traditional long-relief men like Dan Robertson in addition to standard situational relief like Joba Chamberlain, Damaso Marte, and Mariano Rivera. In Game 6, Saunders went only 3.1 innings. Weaver performed well in relief and, frankly, should have been left there for the duration of the series. Instead, Scioscia spread his men too thin and was left making an all-hands-on-deck call in the late games where he used both Weaver and Kazmir in relief. Saunders pitched brilliantly in Game 2, and Scioscia should have been prepared to maximize his usage of Lackey, Saunders, and Kazmir while leaving Weaver in the bullpen. Granted, Saunders pitched like crap last night, but all pitchers have their off nights.

Finally, Girardi will probably do quite well in the World Series, as he’s experienced in managing under National League rules. Hideki Matsui, with his legs in bad shape, will be almost entirely useless in the Phillies’ park. In a perfect world, Girardi would be able to dump fifth-outfielder Freddy Guzman and use Matsui in the field. However, that seems unlikely, so Matsui will remain an overpaid pinch-hitter. With Jerry Hairston, Jr., on the bench, Guzman’s utility as a pinch runner is moderate at best. It would be a gutsy move, but I think Girardi would do best to dump Guzman and bring Shelley Duncan in as a pinch hitter and emergency outfielder.

Still, Girardi gets paid the big bucks to do his job, so I’m sure every move he makes is well-considered.

Probability of a perfect game

July 24th, 2009 by tomflesher

Sky over at Baseball Analysts ran some probabilities using on-base percentages to calculate particular pitchers’ probabilities of pitching a perfect game once and over a career. The method’s simple enough that it’s easy to calculate for any pitcher.

Manny bidding Manny

July 16th, 2009 by tomflesher

There’s been some debate as to whether Manny Ramirez should have been allowed to make his rehab starts in AAA Albuquerque before returning to his Major League club, the Los Angeles Dodgers, after a 50-game suspension for drug use. Behind the cut, I’d like to think about some of the reasons behind the punishment and propose a solution.

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K-Rod, Castillo, and Externalities

June 17th, 2009 by tomflesher

On Friday, Luis Castillo committed an error in the bottom of the 9th inning with a one-run lead, two men on base, and two men out. The error was such that had Castillo made the play cleanly, the game would have ended with Francisco Rodriguez notching a save; however, Castillo’s error was directly responsible for two unearned runs scoring, giving Frankie a loss instead of a save.

The question: How much money does Castillo owe Rodriguez? I have a pretty good estimate.

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Quickie: Kiss the Sheff

April 22nd, 2009 by tomflesher

Why is Gary Sheffield employed for the league minimum when Barry Bonds can’t get a job?

Sheffield had a Batting Average, On-Base Percentage, Slugging Percentage and On-Base Plus Slugging of .225/.326/.400/.725 in 2008; Bonds was last active in 2007 and hit .276/.480/.565/1.045 (with the .480 OBP leading the National League). Clearly, something’s wrong. Collusion?

What’s wrong, in my estimation, is still that Bonds represents a negative externality on his team’s production, reputation, and revenue; Sheffield, meanwhile, is less of a threat to ticket sales. Despite being unpopular and saying bizarre things, Sheffield has not yet to my knowledge irritated fans to the extent that Bonds has, nor is he quite the clubhouse menace Bonds is said to be.

Of course, time will tell whether Sheffield produces $400,000 worth of runs for the ailing Mets.

So why doesn’t Nick Swisher pitch every night?

April 15th, 2009 by tomflesher

Nick Swisher pitched for the first time in the major leagues on Monday night during the Yankees’ 15-5 loss to the Tampa Bay Rays. As you can see from the box score, Swish pitched pretty well. In fact, in 22 pitches, he gave up only one hit and one walk, threw 12 strikes, and struck out a major-league batter (left-fielder Gabe Kapler). So, will Yankees manager Joe Girardi tap him in relief again soon?

No, of course not. Find out why behind the cut.

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The Misery Index

April 2nd, 2009 by tomflesher

The Misery Index is a measure of national economic health derived by adding the unemployment rate to the rate of inflation. It was famously used by Jimmy Carter to declare that Gerald Ford, under whom the rate had risen to 12.5%, had no right to run the country, and then by Ronald Reagan to declare that Carter was unfit for the presidency after it rose to over 20%. (It’s available in real time at MiseryIndex.us.) Read the rest of this entry »

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