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	<title>Heureusement, ici, c&#039;est le Blog!</title>
	<link>http://tomflesher.com</link>
	<description>Happily, here, it&#039;s the Blog! Baseball and economics discussion.</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Wed, 28 Jul 2010 15:20:43 +0000</lastBuildDate>
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		<title>The 600 Home Run Almanac</title>
		<description><![CDATA[People are interested in players who hit 600 home runs, at least judging by the Google searches that point people here. With that in mind, let&#8217;s take a look at some quick facts about the 600th home run and the people who have hit it. Age: There are six players to have hit #600. Sammy [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=tomflesher.com&blog=14243162&post=398&subd=heureusementici&ref=&feed=1" />]]></description>
		<link>http://tomflesher.com/2010/07/28/the-600-home-run-almanac/</link>
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		<title>Matt Garza, Fifth No-Hitter of 2010</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Tonight, Matt Garza pitched the fifth no-hitter of 2010. He joins Edwin Jackson, Roy Halladay, Dallas Braden, and Ubaldo Jimenez in the Year of the Pitcher club. As I pointed out when Jackson hit his no-hitter, no-hit games are probably Poisson distributed. Let&#8217;s update the chart. The Poisson distribution has probability density function Maintaining our [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=tomflesher.com&blog=14243162&post=394&subd=heureusementici&ref=&feed=1" />]]></description>
		<link>http://tomflesher.com/2010/07/26/matt-garza-fifth-no-hitter-of-2010/</link>
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		<title>600 Home Runs: Who&#8217;s Second?</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Alex Rodriguez is, as I&#8217;m writing this, sitting at 599 home runs. Almost certainly, he&#8217;ll be the next player to hit the 600 home-run milestone, since the next two active players are Jim Thome at 575 and Manny Ramirez at 554. Today&#8217;s Toyota Text Poll (which runs during Yankee games on YES) asked which of [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=tomflesher.com&blog=14243162&post=390&subd=heureusementici&ref=&feed=1" />]]></description>
		<link>http://tomflesher.com/2010/07/25/600-home-runs-whos-second/</link>
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		<title>Micah Owings and Cobb-Douglas Production</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Micah Owings, who is one of the best two-way players in baseball since Brooks Kieschnick, was sent down to the minors by the Cincinnati Reds yesterday. As big a fan as I am of Micah (really, look at the blog), I think this was probably the right decision. Owings was being used as a long [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=tomflesher.com&blog=14243162&post=386&subd=heureusementici&ref=&feed=1" />]]></description>
		<link>http://tomflesher.com/2010/07/22/micah-owings-and-cobb-douglas-production/</link>
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		<title>Adventures in the Mets Bullpen: One-Run No-Decisions and Vulture Wins</title>
		<description><![CDATA[A close cousin of the Tough Loss discussed earlier is what Jayson Stark of ESPN calls the Criminally Unsupported Start. Stark defines a CUS as a start in which the pitcher pitches 6 or more innings but the offense scores one run or less in support. Johan Santana didn&#8217;t fit that definition last night, but [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=tomflesher.com&blog=14243162&post=384&subd=heureusementici&ref=&feed=1" />]]></description>
		<link>http://tomflesher.com/2010/07/19/adventures-in-the-mets-bullpen/</link>
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		<title>The Kate Smith Effect</title>
		<description><![CDATA[From the Mountains&#8230; To the Prairies&#8230; To the Oceans&#8230; White with foam&#8230;. It&#8217;s &#8220;well-known&#8221; that when Kate Smith sings &#8220;God Bless America&#8221; &#8211; whether live starting in 1969 or on videotape now &#8211; the Philadelphia Flyers play better, or at least they&#8217;re more likely to win. As Wikipedia indicates, she&#8217;s considered a good luck charm [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=tomflesher.com&blog=14243162&post=382&subd=heureusementici&ref=&feed=1" />]]></description>
		<link>http://tomflesher.com/2010/07/18/the-kate-smith-effect/</link>
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		<title>Cheap Wins</title>
		<description><![CDATA[The opposite of the Tough Loss discussed below (which R.A. Dickey unfortunately experienced tonight in a duel with Tim Lincecum) is a Cheap Win. Logically, since a Tough Loss is a loss in a quality start, a Cheap Win (invented by Bill James) is a win in a non-quality start &#8211; that is, a start [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=tomflesher.com&blog=14243162&post=378&subd=heureusementici&ref=&feed=1" />]]></description>
		<link>http://tomflesher.com/2010/07/16/cheap-wins/</link>
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		<title>Paul the Octopus: Credible?</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Paul the Octopus (hatched 2008) is an octopus who correctly predicted 12 of 14 World Cup matches, including Spain&#8217;s victory over the Dutch. Is his string of victories statistically significant? First, I&#8217;m going to posit the null hypothesis that Paul is choosing randomly. As such, Paul&#8217;s proportion of correct choices should be .5 (). His [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=tomflesher.com&blog=14243162&post=358&subd=heureusementici&ref=&feed=1" />]]></description>
		<link>http://tomflesher.com/2010/07/11/paul-the-octopus-credible/</link>
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		<title>More on Home Runs Per Game</title>
		<description><![CDATA[In the previous post, I looked at the trend in home runs per game in the Major Leagues and suggested that the recent deviation from the increasing trend might have been due to the development of strong farm systems like the Tampa Bay Rays&#8217;. That means that if the same data analysis process is used [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=tomflesher.com&blog=14243162&post=335&subd=heureusementici&ref=&feed=1" />]]></description>
		<link>http://tomflesher.com/2010/07/09/more-on-home-runs-per-game/</link>
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		<title>Back when it was hard to hit 55&#8230;</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Last night was one of those classic Keith Hernandez moments where he started talking and then stopped abruptly, which I always like to assume is because the guys in the truck are telling him to shut the hell up. He was talking about Willie Mays for some reason, and said that Mays hit 55 home [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=tomflesher.com&blog=14243162&post=319&subd=heureusementici&ref=&feed=1" />]]></description>
		<link>http://tomflesher.com/2010/07/08/back-when-it-was-hard-to-hit-55/</link>
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