Tom Flesher » Phillies

Quickie: Ryan Howard's Choke Index

tomflesher — Mon, 25 Oct 2010 14:39:45 +0000

The Choke Index is alive and well.

Previous to 2010, Ryan Howard of the Philadelphia Phillies hit home runs in three consecutive postseasons. He managed 7 in his 140 plate appearances, averaging out to .05 home runs per plate appearance. Not too shabby. It’s a bit below his regular season rate of about .067, but there are a bunch of things that could account for that.

This year, Ryan made 38 plate appearances and hit a grand total of 0 home runs in the postseason. What’s the likelihood of that happening? I use the Choke Index (one minus the probability of hitting 0 home runs in a given number of plate appearances) to measure that. As always, the closer a player gets to 1, the more unlikely his homer-free streak is.

The binomial probability can be calculated using the formula

Or, since we’re looking for the probability of an event NOT occurring,

using his career postseason numbers. That means that Ryan Howard’s 2010 postseason Choke Index is .858. Pretty impressive!

Three Catchers, Four Starters, and Other Playoff Thoughts

tomflesher — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 15:53:54 +0000

Last night, the LA Angels lost Game 6 of the 2009 ALCS to the New York Yankees. Mike Scioscia started left-handed pitcher Joe Saunders; he carries, as is becoming the norm, three catchers including light-hitting third catcher Bobby Wilson. Joe Girardi also carries three catchers, although his array includes defensive specialist Jose Molina, sometime-DH Jorge Posada, and Francisco Cervelli, who hit .298 in 94 at-bats this season. Though Mike Napoli was hot during the postseason, Scioscia’s group of catchers wasn’t as specialized as it was in 2005, when he carried big-hitter Bengie Molina, Jose Molina for his glove, and Josh Paul for emergencies. Here, he appeared to be carrying three catchers solely because none of them are big hitters. In retrospect, although Napoli and Mathis are both a big part of the Angels clubhouse, Scioscia should have made a move during the regular season to replace one of them with a catcher who was more of the Bengie Molina or Jorge Posada mold – someone whose glove or arm is slightly defective, but who can hit the ball when necessary. Instead, Scioscia was forced to burn two pinch hitters and a second catcher in his attempt to win the game last night, whereas Girardi has in previous games been able to use the traditional approach of starting Molina and using Posada to pinch hit, or starting Posada and using Molina as a defensive replacement late in the game. In a perfect world, Scoscia could have traded Kendry Morales away and acquired Victor Martinez to use mainly at first base and as an emergency third catcher, replacing Wilson’s more or less dead weight with a big bat but not forgoing any real utility.

In addition, Scioscia started Joe Saunders. This isn’t a crime in and of itself. However, in the ALCS, he started John Lackey, Saunders, Jered Weaver, and Scott Kazmir. Girardi, meanwhile, is using Joe Torre’s time-honored trick of carrying only three starters (CC Sabathia, Andy Pettitte, and AJ Burnett) and using traditional long-relief men like Dan Robertson in addition to standard situational relief like Joba Chamberlain, Damaso Marte, and Mariano Rivera. In Game 6, Saunders went only 3.1 innings. Weaver performed well in relief and, frankly, should have been left there for the duration of the series. Instead, Scioscia spread his men too thin and was left making an all-hands-on-deck call in the late games where he used both Weaver and Kazmir in relief. Saunders pitched brilliantly in Game 2, and Scioscia should have been prepared to maximize his usage of Lackey, Saunders, and Kazmir while leaving Weaver in the bullpen. Granted, Saunders pitched like crap last night, but all pitchers have their off nights.

Finally, Girardi will probably do quite well in the World Series, as he’s experienced in managing under National League rules. Hideki Matsui, with his legs in bad shape, will be almost entirely useless in the Phillies’ park. In a perfect world, Girardi would be able to dump fifth-outfielder Freddy Guzman and use Matsui in the field. However, that seems unlikely, so Matsui will remain an overpaid pinch-hitter. With Jerry Hairston, Jr., on the bench, Guzman’s utility as a pinch runner is moderate at best. It would be a gutsy move, but I think Girardi would do best to dump Guzman and bring Shelley Duncan in as a pinch hitter and emergency outfielder.

Still, Girardi gets paid the big bucks to do his job, so I’m sure every move he makes is well-considered.

Statistical evidence that the Rays are outclassed.

tomflesher — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 14:39:54 +0000

The series thus far.

Q.E.D.

Quickie: The World Series NL DH

tomflesher — Thu, 23 Oct 2008 17:35:04 +0000

Things are fairly busy – it’s midterm time, and in my spare time I’ve been crunching numbers on the Canadian federal election. I’ve also been following Theron over at Recondite Baseball, who did a very interesting post about pitchers responsible for a high percentage of their team’s wins. I’d like to take a look at something that I consider to be the opposite: the poor guy who ends up playing DH for the National League team.

I ran a Baseball-Reference.com report on all players for an NL team who played as the designated hitter in the World Series. For whatever reason, it omitted the 2002 and 1982 World Series, so I dug them up and added them manually. There have been 108 instances of someone playing as DH, PR-DH or PH-DH for a National League team in the World Series; all told, they’ve scored 38 runs, recorded 78 hits in 315 at-bats and 353 plate appearances, had 4 sacrifices, walked 36 times, struck out 59, and hit 11 home runs. The most appearances as an NL DH in the World Series: Lonnie Smith, who DH’d in 9 games spanning 4 different series for 3 teams – the 1980 Philadelphia Phillies, the 1982 St. Louis Cardinals, and the 1991 and 1992 Atlanta Braves. Why? I’m not quite sure – he had 7 hits, 1 homer, 3 walks and 6 strikeouts in 40 plate appearances and 35 at-bats, for an average of .200 and an OBP of .250.

Chris Coste of the 2008 Phillies is upholding the tradition – he went 0-for-4 last night.

The most DHs used all-time is 14 by Saint Louis, with Atlanta following with 9 and then several teams with 6. Within one series, the NL teams with the most variability were the 82 Cardinals and the 97 Marlins, each using 5 different DHs.